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HomeLa LigaMatchweek 4Alavés vs Osasuna
Early season
AlavésAlavés
Matchweek 4VSSun 6 September at 12:30 pmMendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
OsasunaOsasuna
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
44%
Draw
29%
Away
27%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locks 24h before kickoff; never edited afterwards.
OverviewxGHT / FTCornersDataAvailability
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
44%Alavés win
Alavés win 44%Draw 29%Osasuna win 27%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 44%
65% bar

Top probability 44% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

No model lean: line-ball at 44% for Alavés, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
Alavés
1.51
League home avg 1.50
Osasuna
1.14
League away avg 1.15
xG diff
+0.37 Alavés
1st / 2nd half
1.16 · 1.49
Shots (avg)
12.7 · 12.6
On target (avg)
4.3 · 4.4

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.

Recent form Last 5 La LigaFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
AlavésAlavésWWLWD73+42.00
OsasunaOsasunaLLLDW46-20.80
Chronological left→right; La Liga matches only.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

La Liga lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

AlavésOsasuna2-match sample
Shots (avg)16.512.5
On target (avg)5.56
Shot xG (avg)1.971.68
Model data FREE
Strength rating1484 / 1493
Expected goals (this match)1.51 / 1.14
Goals per game (last season)1.16 / 1.16
◀ AlavésOsasuna ▶
Head to head Last 5FREE
0
Alavés wins
3
Draws
2
Osasuna wins
2026-04-05Alavés2–2OsasunaLALIGA
2025-12-20Osasuna3–0AlavésLALIGA
2025-05-24Alavés1–1OsasunaLALIGA
2024-12-08Osasuna2–2AlavésLALIGA
2024-03-04Osasuna1–0AlavésLALIGA
Availability FREE
AlavésAlavés
TO
Toni MartínezOut
傷患
234' · 0G
OsasunaOsasuna
VA
Valentin RosierDoubtful
傷患
0' · 0G

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Match analysis ①–⑦
①

No model lean: line-ball at 44% for Alavés, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

②

Strength ratings 1484 v 1493 (ranked 14 and 13) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Alavés 44%, draw 29%, Osasuna 27%. Last five in the league: Alavés W-W-L-W-D (2.00 pts/game), Osasuna L-L-L-D-W (0.80).

Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.

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Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

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Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

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Half-time / Full-time PRO

The 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.

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Corners PRO

Corner analysis is PRO content.

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Key players FREE
MA
Mariano Díaz FW
2G · 2A · 97'
Alavés
NA
Nahuel Tenaglia DF
1G · 0A · 270'
Alavés
NG
Ángel Pérez DF
0G · 1A · 216'
Alavés
AN
Ante Budimir FW
1G · 0A · 112'
Osasuna
AL
Alejandro Catena DF
0G · 0A · 180'
Osasuna
AB
Abel Bretones DF
0G · 0A · 180'
Osasuna
By goals + assists + xG + xA2026-08-31
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 44% for Alavés, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
Alavés44%
Even
Confidence
No lean
44%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.90
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.