Open record

Open Prediction Record

Every forecast is locked before kick-off and compared to the result afterwards. We keep the matches the model got right — and the ones it got wrong — so anyone can audit its long-term performance, not just a cherry-picked highlight reel.

World Cup open prediction record

47 / 58

Of the matches where the model had a clear direction, the result matched its call (about 81%, so far).

🟢Model on track —— The result matched the model’s main call.

🟡Too close · unscored —— Below the 55% scoring threshold — too close to call, not counted in the hit rate.

🔴Model missed —— The result differed from the model — usually finishing, red cards, goalkeeping or individual errors.

Below-threshold matches are never scored — whether the model's lean turned out right or wrong. The gate cuts both ways.

Extra time / penalties: an extra-time winner counts as the result; a penalty shoot-out counts as a 90-minute draw.

Football is inherently uncertain — any single result can turn on a red card, injury, goalkeeping or in-game tactics. This page exists to make the model’s history public for anyone to audit, not to guarantee future outcomes.

Every prediction stays on the record

Not just the matches it got right — the ones the model missed are kept in full, and you can read every one.

✦ Pro shows each match’s top-3 scorelinesBeyond win probability, see the three most likely scorelines and the odds the model gives each.Explore Pro →

All 96 matches

✦ = actual score was in the pre-locked top-3 (display only, not scored)

Jul 7 · Knockout · R16

Switzerland 0–0PEN Colombia

Pre-match: Switzerland 26 · draw 32 · Colombia 41 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 16%✦ 0-0 10%1-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jul 7 · Knockout · R16

Argentina 3–2 Egypt

Pre-match: Argentina 84% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 20%3-0 16%1-0 15%

Model on track

Jul 7 · Knockout · R16

United States 1–4 Belgium

Pre-match: United States 29 · draw 33 · Belgium 38 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 16%0-0 10%1-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jul 6 · Knockout · R16

Portugal 0–1 Spain

Pre-match: Portugal 17 · draw 30 · Spain 53 — model leaned Spain (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%0-2 10%1-2 10%

Too close · unscored

Jul 6 · Knockout · R16

Mexico 2–3 England

Pre-match: Mexico 30 · draw 33 · England 37 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 16%0-0 10%1-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jul 5 · Knockout · R16

Brazil 1–2 Norway

Pre-match: Brazil 46 · draw 31 · Norway 22 — model leaned Brazil (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%0-0 10%2-1 10%

Too close · unscored

Jul 4 · Knockout · R16

Paraguay 0–1 France

Pre-match: France 74% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-2 16%✦ 0-1 12%0-3 12%

Model on track

Jul 4 · Knockout · R16

Canada 0–3 Morocco

Pre-match: Canada 20 · draw 31 · Morocco 50 — model leaned Morocco (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%0-0 10%1-2 10%

Too close · unscored

Jul 4 · Knockout · R32

Colombia 1–0 Ghana

Pre-match: Colombia 87% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 21%3-0 18%✦ 1-0 15%

Model on track

Jul 3 · Knockout · R32

Argentina 3–2AET Cape Verde

Pre-match: Argentina 90% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 19%3-0 18%1-0 13%

Model on track

Jul 3 · Knockout · R32

Australia 1–1PEN Egypt

Pre-match: Australia 41 · draw 32 · Egypt 26 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 16%0-0 10%2-1 9%

Too close · unscored

Jul 3 · Knockout · R32

Switzerland 2–0 Algeria

Pre-match: Switzerland 51 · draw 30 · Algeria 18 — model leaned Switzerland (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%2-1 10%0-0 10%

Too close · unscored

Jul 2 · Knockout · R32

Portugal 2–1 Croatia

Pre-match: Portugal 46 · draw 32 · Croatia 23 — model leaned Portugal (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%0-0 10%✦ 2-1 10%

Too close · unscored

Jul 2 · Knockout · R32

Spain 3–0 Austria

Pre-match: Spain 72% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 15%1-0 12%✦ 3-0 11%

Model on track

Jul 2 · Knockout · R32

United States 2–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Pre-match: United States 70% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-3✦ 2-0 14%1-0 11%1-1 11%

Model on track

Jul 1 · Knockout · R32

Belgium 3–2AET Senegal

Pre-match: Belgium 43 · draw 26 · Senegal 31 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%2-1 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jul 1 · Knockout · R32

England 2–1 Congo DR

Pre-match: England 80% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 16%3-0 13%1-0 11%

Model on track

Jul 1 · Knockout · R32

Mexico 2–0 Ecuador

Pre-match: Mexico 38 · draw 27 · Ecuador 35 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%0-0 9%2-1 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 30 · Knockout · R32

France 3–0 Sweden

Pre-match: France 78% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 16%✦ 3-0 13%1-0 11%

Model on track

Jun 30 · Knockout · R32

Ivory Coast 1–2 Norway

Pre-match: Norway 62% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%0-2 11%✦ 1-2 10%

Model on track

Jun 30 · Knockout · R32

Netherlands 1–1PEN Morocco

Pre-match: Netherlands 49 · draw 26 · Morocco 25 — model leaned Netherlands (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 14%2-1 10%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 29 · Knockout · R32

Germany 1–1PEN Paraguay

Pre-match: Germany 49 · draw 26 · Paraguay 25 — model leaned Germany (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 14%2-1 10%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 29 · Knockout · R32

Brazil 2–1 Japan

Pre-match: Brazil 49 · draw 26 · Japan 26 — model leaned Brazil (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%✦ 2-1 10%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 28 · Knockout · R32

South Africa 0–1 Canada

Pre-match: Canada 58% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%0-2 10%1-2 10%

Model on track

Jun 28 · Group Stage · Group J

Algeria 3–3 Austria

Pre-match: Algeria 32 · draw 29 · Austria 39 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 16%0-0 10%1-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 28 · Group Stage · Group J

Jordan 1–3 Argentina

Pre-match: Argentina 89% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-3 13%0-2 11%0-4 11%

Model on track

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group K

Colombia 0–0 Portugal

Pre-match: Colombia 28 · draw 28 · Portugal 44 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 16%✦ 0-0 10%1-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group K

Congo DR 3–1 Uzbekistan

Pre-match: Congo DR 37 · draw 29 · Uzbekistan 34 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 16%0-0 10%2-1 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group L

Panama 0–2 England

Pre-match: England 71% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-3✦ 0-2 12%1-1 11%0-3 10%

Model on track

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group L

Croatia 2–1 Ghana

Pre-match: Croatia 80% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 13%3-0 11%✦ 2-1 8%

Model on track

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group G

New Zealand 1–5 Belgium

Pre-match: Belgium 88% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-3 13%0-2 12%0-4 11%

Model on track

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group G

Egypt 1–1 Iran

Pre-match: Egypt 29 · draw 29 · Iran 43 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 16%0-0 10%1-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group H

Cape Verde 0–0 Saudi Arabia

Pre-match: Cape Verde 29 · draw 29 · Saudi Arabia 42 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 16%✦ 0-0 10%1-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 27 · Group Stage · Group H

Uruguay 0–1 Spain

Pre-match: Spain 61% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%0-2 11%1-2 10%

Model on track

Jun 26 · Group Stage · Group I

Norway 1–4 France

Pre-match: France 60% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%0-2 11%1-2 10%

Model on track

Jun 26 · Group Stage · Group I

Senegal 5–0 Iraq

Pre-match: Senegal 67% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 12%1-1 12%2-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 26 · Group Stage · Group D

Türkiye 3–2 United States

Pre-match: Türkiye 32 · draw 31 · United States 37 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%1-2 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 26 · Group Stage · Group D

Paraguay 0–0 Australia

Pre-match: Paraguay 38 · draw 31 · Australia 31 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%2-1 9%✦ 0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 25 · Group Stage · Group F

Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands

Pre-match: Netherlands 84% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-2 18%0-3 15%0-1 12%

Model on track

Jun 25 · Group Stage · Group F

Japan 1–1 Sweden

Pre-match: Japan 54 · draw 28 · Sweden 17 — model leaned Japan (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 14%2-1 10%2-0 10%

Too close · unscored

Jun 25 · Group Stage · Group E

Ecuador 2–1 Germany

Pre-match: Ecuador 30 · draw 31 · Germany 39 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%1-2 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 25 · Group Stage · Group E

Curaçao 0–2 Ivory Coast

Pre-match: Ivory Coast 71% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-3✦ 0-2 14%1-1 11%0-3 10%

Model on track

Jun 25 · Group Stage · Group A

Czechia 0–3 Mexico

Pre-match: Mexico 77% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-2 15%✦ 0-3 12%0-1 11%

Model on track

Jun 25 · Group Stage · Group A

South Africa 1–0 South Korea

Pre-match: South Korea 55% → missed; model gave the result 17%

Pre-match top-31-1 13%1-2 10%0-2 10%

Model missed

Jun 24 · Group Stage · Group C

Scotland 0–3 Brazil

Pre-match: Brazil 71% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-2 13%1-1 11%✦ 0-3 10%

Model on track

Jun 24 · Group Stage · Group C

Morocco 4–2 Haiti

Pre-match: Morocco 80% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 16%3-0 14%1-0 11%

Model on track

Jun 24 · Group Stage · Group B

Switzerland 2–1 Canada

Pre-match: Switzerland 47 · draw 30 · Canada 22 — model leaned Switzerland (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%✦ 2-1 10%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 24 · Group Stage · Group B

Bosnia-Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar

Pre-match: Bosnia-Herzegovina 59% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%2-0 11%2-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 24 · Group Stage · Group K

Colombia 1–0 Congo DR

Pre-match: Colombia 72% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 14%3-0 11%1-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 23 · Group Stage · Group L

Panama 0–1 Croatia

Pre-match: Croatia 63% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 12%0-2 11%1-2 10%

Model on track

Jun 23 · Group Stage · Group L

England 0–0 Ghana

Pre-match: England 89% → missed; model gave the result 10%

Pre-match top-32-0 20%3-0 18%1-0 13%

Model missed

Jun 23 · Group Stage · Group K

Portugal 5–0 Uzbekistan

Pre-match: Portugal 81% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 17%3-0 14%1-0 12%

Model on track

Jun 23 · Group Stage · Group J

Jordan 1–2 Algeria

Pre-match: Jordan 20 · draw 29 · Algeria 51 — model leaned Algeria (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%✦ 1-2 10%0-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 23 · Group Stage · Group I

Norway 3–2 Senegal

Pre-match: Norway 49 · draw 30 · Senegal 21 — model leaned Norway (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%2-1 10%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 22 · Group Stage · Group I

France 3–0 Iraq

Pre-match: France 91% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-3✦ 3-0 18%2-0 18%4-0 14%

Model on track

Jun 22 · Group Stage · Group J

Argentina 2–0 Austria

Pre-match: Argentina 75% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-3✦ 2-0 15%3-0 12%1-0 10%

Model on track

Jun 22 · Group Stage · Group G

New Zealand 1–3 Egypt

Pre-match: Egypt 62% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%0-2 11%1-2 10%

Model on track

Jun 21 · Group Stage · Group H

Uruguay 2–2 Cape Verde

Pre-match: Uruguay 62% → missed; model gave the result 26%

Pre-match top-31-1 12%2-0 11%2-1 10%

Model missed

Jun 21 · Group Stage · Group G

Belgium 0–0 Iran

Pre-match: Belgium 53 · draw 29 · Iran 18 — model leaned Belgium (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%2-1 10%2-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 21 · Group Stage · Group H

Spain 4–0 Saudi Arabia

Pre-match: Spain 91% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-33-0 18%2-0 18%✦ 4-0 14%

Model on track

Jun 21 · Group Stage · Group F

Tunisia 0–4 Japan

Pre-match: Japan 75% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-2 15%0-3 12%0-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 21 · Group Stage · Group E

Ecuador 0–0 Curaçao

Pre-match: Ecuador 86% → missed; model gave the result 12%

Pre-match top-32-0 19%3-0 17%1-0 13%

Model missed

Jun 20 · Group Stage · Group E

Germany 2–1 Ivory Coast

Pre-match: Germany 57% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%2-0 10%✦ 2-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 20 · Group Stage · Group F

Netherlands 5–1 Sweden

Pre-match: Netherlands 65% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 12%1-1 12%2-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 20 · Group Stage · Group D

Türkiye 0–1 Paraguay

Pre-match: Türkiye 38 · draw 31 · Paraguay 31 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%2-1 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 20 · Group Stage · Group C

Brazil 3–0 Haiti

Pre-match: Brazil 90% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 19%✦ 3-0 18%4-0 13%

Model on track

Jun 19 · Group Stage · Group C

Scotland 0–1 Morocco

Pre-match: Scotland 19 · draw 29 · Morocco 52 — model leaned Morocco (direction right); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%1-2 10%0-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 19 · Group Stage · Group D

United States 2–0 Australia

Pre-match: United States 44 · draw 31 · Australia 25 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%2-1 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 19 · Group Stage · Group A

Mexico 1–0 South Korea

Pre-match: Mexico 72% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 14%3-0 10%1-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 18 · Group Stage · Group B

Canada 6–0 Qatar

Pre-match: Canada 86% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 18%3-0 16%1-0 13%

Model on track

Jun 18 · Group Stage · Group B

Switzerland 4–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Pre-match: Switzerland 77% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 15%3-0 12%1-0 11%

Model on track

Jun 18 · Group Stage · Group A

Czechia 1–1 South Africa

Pre-match: Czechia 50 · draw 30 · South Africa 21 — model leaned Czechia (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 14%2-1 10%2-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 18 · Group Stage · Group K

Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia

Pre-match: Colombia 80% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-2 16%0-3 14%0-1 11%

Model on track

Jun 17 · Group Stage · Group L

Ghana 1–0 Panama

Pre-match: Ghana 25 · draw 31 · Panama 45 — model leaned Panama (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%1-2 10%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 17 · Group Stage · Group L

England 4–2 Croatia

Pre-match: England 55% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%2-1 10%2-0 10%

Model on track

Jun 17 · Group Stage · Group K

Portugal 1–1 Congo DR

Pre-match: Portugal 73% → missed; model gave the result 21%

Pre-match top-32-0 14%3-0 11%✦ 1-1 10%

Model missed

Jun 17 · Group Stage · Group J

Austria 3–1 Jordan

Pre-match: Austria 59% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%2-0 11%2-1 10%

Model on track

Jun 17 · Group Stage · Group J

Argentina 3–0 Algeria

Pre-match: Argentina 82% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 17%✦ 3-0 15%1-0 12%

Model on track

Jun 16 · Group Stage · Group I

Iraq 1–4 Norway

Pre-match: Norway 80% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-30-2 16%0-3 14%0-1 11%

Model on track

Jun 16 · Group Stage · Group I

France 3–1 Senegal

Pre-match: France 74% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 15%3-0 11%1-0 10%

Model on track

Jun 16 · Group Stage · Group G

Iran 2–2 New Zealand

Pre-match: Iran 64% → missed; model gave the result 25%

Pre-match top-31-1 12%2-0 12%2-1 10%

Model missed

Jun 15 · Group Stage · Group H

Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay

Pre-match: Uruguay 66% → missed; model gave the result 24%

Pre-match top-30-2 12%✦ 1-1 12%1-2 10%

Model missed

Jun 15 · Group Stage · Group G

Belgium 1–1 Egypt

Pre-match: Belgium 55% → missed; model gave the result 28%

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 13%2-1 10%2-0 10%

Model missed

Jun 15 · Group Stage · Group H

Spain 0–0 Cape Verde

Pre-match: Spain 91% → missed; model gave the result 9%

Pre-match top-32-0 19%3-0 18%4-0 14%

Model missed

Jun 15 · Group Stage · Group F

Sweden 5–1 Tunisia

Pre-match: Sweden 56% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 13%2-1 10%2-0 10%

Model on track

Jun 14 · Group Stage · Group E

Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador

Pre-match: Ivory Coast 18 · draw 29 · Ecuador 53 — model leaned Ecuador (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%1-2 10%0-2 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 14 · Group Stage · Group F

Netherlands 2–2 Japan

Pre-match: Netherlands 45 · draw 31 · Japan 25 — model leaned Netherlands (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 14%2-1 10%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 14 · Group Stage · Group E

Germany 7–1 Curaçao

Pre-match: Germany 89% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-32-0 20%3-0 18%1-0 13%

Model on track

Jun 14 · Group Stage · Group D

Australia 2–0 Türkiye

Pre-match: Australia 28 · draw 31 · Türkiye 41 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%1-2 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 14 · Group Stage · Group C

Haiti 0–1 Scotland

Pre-match: Scotland 63% favoured → on track

Pre-match top-31-1 12%0-2 12%1-2 10%

Model on track

Jun 13 · Group Stage · Group C

Brazil 1–1 Morocco

Pre-match: Brazil 53 · draw 29 · Morocco 18 — model leaned Brazil (direction wrong); below the 55% scoring line, not scored

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 14%2-1 10%2-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 13 · Group Stage · Group B

Qatar 1–1 Switzerland

Pre-match: Switzerland 91% → missed; model gave the result 9%

Pre-match top-30-2 19%0-3 18%0-4 14%

Model missed

Jun 13 · Group Stage · Group D

United States 4–1 Paraguay

Pre-match: United States 41 · draw 31 · Paraguay 28 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%2-1 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 12 · Group Stage · Group B

Canada 1–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina

Pre-match: Canada 64% → missed; model gave the result 25%

Pre-match top-3✦ 1-1 12%2-0 12%2-1 10%

Model missed

Jun 12 · Group Stage · Group A

South Korea 2–1 Czechia

Pre-match: South Korea 40 · draw 31 · Czechia 29 — no clear lean, not scored

Pre-match top-31-1 15%✦ 2-1 9%0-0 9%

Too close · unscored

Jun 11 · Group Stage · Group A

Mexico 2–0 South Africa

Pre-match: Mexico 89% clearly stronger → on track

Pre-match top-3✦ 2-0 20%3-0 18%1-0 13%

Model on track

How the model works →