Top probability 78% clears the 65% bar — the model has a clear lean.
Barcelona are favoured, with the model giving them a 78% chance of winning. Their 1831 rating is significantly higher than Rayo Vallecano's 1538.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Barcelona | LWLWW | 11 | 5 | +6 | 1.80 |
 Rayo Vallecano | DWWLD | 7 | 5 | +2 | 1.60 |
La Liga lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 16.5 | 7 |
| On target (avg) | 8.5 | 3 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 4.14 | 1.16 |
| 2026-03-22 | Barcelona | 1–0 | Rayo Vallecano | LALIGA |
| 2025-08-31 | Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | Barcelona | LALIGA |
| 2025-02-17 | Barcelona | 1–0 | Rayo Vallecano | LALIGA |
| 2024-08-27 | Rayo Vallecano | 1–2 | Barcelona | LALIGA |
| 2024-05-19 | Barcelona | 3–0 | Rayo Vallecano | LALIGA |
BarcelonaRayo VallecanoAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
Barcelona are favoured, with the model giving them a 78% chance of winning. Their 1831 rating is significantly higher than Rayo Vallecano's 1538.
Strength ratings 1831 v 1538 (ranked 1 and 6) — a huge gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Barcelona 78%, draw 17%, Rayo Vallecano 5%. Last five in the league: Barcelona L-W-L-W-W (1.80 pts/game), Rayo Vallecano D-W-W-L-D (1.60).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PROBarcelona are favoured, with the model giving them a 78% chance of winning. Their 1831 rating is significantly higher than Rayo Vallecano's 1538.
78%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.