Top probability 48% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 48% for Deportivo, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Deportivo | DD | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 |
 Elche | LWDDL | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1.00 |
Promoted sides have under five La Liga matches — rank comparisons are not yet meaningful. Shows automatically after a few matchweeks.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 7 | 9 |
| On target (avg) | 3.5 | 4 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 0.73 | 1.06 |
| 2026-08-17 | Deportivo | 1–1 | Elche | LALIGA |
DeportivoElcheAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
No model lean: line-ball at 48% for Deportivo, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1455 v 1435 (ranked 17 and 20) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Deportivo 48%, draw 28%, Elche 24%. Last five in the league: Deportivo D-D (1.00 pts/game), Elche L-W-D-D-L (1.00).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 48% for Deportivo, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
48%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.