Top probability 43% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
The model leans towards Osasuna with a 43% win rate, primarily due to home advantage, despite Getafe's higher league standing.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Osasuna | LLLDW | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0.80 |
 Getafe | WLWLW | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.80 |
La Liga lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 12.5 | 9 |
| On target (avg) | 6 | 1.5 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.68 | 0.74 |
| 2026-05-23 | Getafe | 1–0 | Osasuna | LALIGA |
| 2025-10-03 | Osasuna | 2–1 | Getafe | LALIGA |
| 2025-03-16 | Osasuna | 1–2 | Getafe | LALIGA |
| 2024-10-05 | Getafe | 1–1 | Osasuna | LALIGA |
| 2024-01-21 | Osasuna | 3–2 | Getafe | LALIGA |
OsasunaGetafeAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
The model leans towards Osasuna with a 43% win rate, primarily due to home advantage, despite Getafe's higher league standing.
Strength ratings 1493 v 1515 (ranked 13 and 8) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Osasuna 43%, draw 29%, Getafe 29%. Last five in the league: Osasuna L-L-L-D-W (0.80 pts/game), Getafe W-L-W-L-W (1.80).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
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Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PROThe model leans towards Osasuna with a 43% win rate, primarily due to home advantage, despite Getafe's higher league standing.
43%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.