Top probability 55% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 55% for Rayo Vallecano, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rayo Vallecano | DWWLD | 7 | 5 | +2 | 1.60 |
 Racing Santander | DL | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0.50 |
Promoted sides have under five La Liga matches — rank comparisons are not yet meaningful. Shows automatically after a few matchweeks.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 7 | 11.5 |
| On target (avg) | 3 | 3 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.16 | 1.59 |
No recent La Liga meetings.
Rayo VallecanoRacing SantanderAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
No model lean: line-ball at 55% for Rayo Vallecano, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1538 v 1457 (ranked 6 and 16) — a modest gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Rayo Vallecano 55%, draw 27%, Racing Santander 19%. Last five in the league: Rayo Vallecano D-W-W-L-D (1.60 pts/game), Racing Santander D-L (0.50).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 55% for Rayo Vallecano, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
55%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.