Top probability 43% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Real Sociedad, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Real Sociedad | DLDLL | 6 | 11 | -5 | 0.40 |
 Celta Vigo | LDWDL | 5 | 6 | -1 | 1.00 |
La Liga lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 9.5 | 5.5 |
| On target (avg) | 3 | 2.5 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 0.96 | 0.4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Real Sociedad | 3–1 | Celta Vigo | LALIGA |
| 2025-10-19 | Celta Vigo | 1–1 | Real Sociedad | LALIGA |
| 2025-05-13 | Real Sociedad | 0–1 | Celta Vigo | LALIGA |
| 2024-12-21 | Celta Vigo | 2–0 | Real Sociedad | LALIGA |
| 2024-01-20 | Celta Vigo | 0–1 | Real Sociedad | LALIGA |
Real SociedadCelta VigoAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Real Sociedad, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1502 v 1518 (ranked 11 and 7) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Real Sociedad 43%, draw 29%, Celta Vigo 28%. Last five in the league: Real Sociedad D-L-D-L-L (0.40 pts/game), Celta Vigo L-D-W-D-L (1.00).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 43% for Real Sociedad, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
43%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.