Top probability 62% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Model lean: Barcelona (62%) — higher confidence, not one-sided.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Valencia | DWWDL | 8 | 6 | +2 | 1.60 |
 Barcelona | LWLWW | 11 | 5 | +6 | 1.80 |
La Liga lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 12 | 16.5 |
| On target (avg) | 2.5 | 8.5 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 0.85 | 4.14 |
| 2026-05-23 | Valencia | 3–1 | Barcelona | LALIGA |
| 2025-09-14 | Barcelona | 6–0 | Valencia | LALIGA |
| 2025-01-26 | Barcelona | 7–1 | Valencia | LALIGA |
| 2024-08-17 | Valencia | 1–2 | Barcelona | LALIGA |
| 2024-04-29 | Barcelona | 4–2 | Valencia | LALIGA |
ValenciaBarcelonaAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
Model lean: Barcelona (62%) — higher confidence, not one-sided.
Strength ratings 1515 v 1831 (ranked 9 and 1) — a huge gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Valencia 13%, draw 24%, Barcelona 62%. Last five in the league: Valencia D-W-W-D-L (1.60 pts/game), Barcelona L-W-L-W-W (1.80).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PROModel lean: Barcelona (62%) — higher confidence, not one-sided.
62%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.