Top probability 66% clears the 65% bar — the model has a clear lean.
Model lean: Villarreal (66%). The gap is clear and form agrees — no counter-signal.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Villarreal | LLWDD | 11 | 10 | +1 | 1.00 |
 Deportivo | DD | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 |
Promoted sides have under five La Liga matches — rank comparisons are not yet meaningful. Shows automatically after a few matchweeks.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 12.5 | 7 |
| On target (avg) | 6.5 | 3.5 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 2.13 | 0.73 |
No recent La Liga meetings.
VillarrealDeportivoAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
Model lean: Villarreal (66%). The gap is clear and form agrees — no counter-signal.
Strength ratings 1632 v 1455 (ranked 4 and 17) — a clear gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Villarreal 66%, draw 23%, Deportivo 11%. Last five in the league: Villarreal L-L-W-D-D (1.00 pts/game), Deportivo D-D (1.00).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PROModel lean: Villarreal (66%). The gap is clear and form agrees — no counter-signal.
66%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.