Top probability 53% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 53% for Brentford, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Brentford
SunderlandShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | WLDDW | 9 | 6 | +3 | 1.60 |
| Sunderland | DDWWL | 7 | 5 | +2 | 1.60 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 26 | 11 |
| On target (avg) | 8 | 4 |
| Possession | 41% | 63% |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 88% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 3.88 | 0.66 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 39 matches.
| 2026-01-07 | Brentford | 3–0 | Sunderland | EPL |
| 2025-08-30 | Sunderland | 2–1 | Brentford | EPL |
Brentford
Sunderland
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
No model lean: line-ball at 53% for Brentford, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1579 v 1501 (ranked 9 and 16) — a modest gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Brentford 53%, draw 25%, Sunderland 23%. Last five in the league: Brentford W-L-D-D-W (1.60 pts/game), Sunderland D-D-W-W-L (1.60).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 53% for Brentford, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
53%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.