Top probability 46% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 46% for Fulham, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Fulham
Crystal PalaceShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | LLDWL | 5 | 8 | -3 | 0.80 |
| Crystal Palace | DLDLL | 5 | 11 | -6 | 0.40 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 14 | 11 |
| On target (avg) | 6 | 4 |
| Possession | 62% | 58% |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 87% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.35 | 1.96 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-01-01 | Crystal Palace | 1–1 | Fulham | EPL |
| 2025-12-07 | Fulham | 1–2 | Crystal Palace | EPL |
| 2025-02-22 | Fulham | 0–2 | Crystal Palace | EPL |
| 2024-11-09 | Crystal Palace | 0–2 | Fulham | EPL |
| 2024-04-27 | Fulham | 1–1 | Crystal Palace | EPL |
Fulham
Crystal Palace
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
No model lean: line-ball at 46% for Fulham, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1524 v 1498 (ranked 14 and 18) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Fulham 46%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 28%. Last five in the league: Fulham L-L-D-W-L (0.80 pts/game), Crystal Palace D-L-D-L-L (0.40).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 46% for Fulham, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
46%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.