Top probability 50% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 50% for Liverpool, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Ipswich Town
LiverpoolShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | DLLLW | 5 | 9 | -4 | 0.80 |
| Liverpool | LDLDD | 8 | 11 | -3 | 0.60 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 10 | 27 |
| On target (avg) | 3 | 7 |
| Possession | 38% | 61% |
| Pass accuracy | 79% | 84% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.8 | 2.98 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 39 vs 77 matches.
| 2025-01-25 | Liverpool | 4–1 | Ipswich Town | EPL |
| 2024-08-17 | Ipswich Town | 0–2 | Liverpool | EPL |
Ipswich Town
Liverpool
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
No model lean: line-ball at 50% for Liverpool, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1498 v 1649 (ranked 17 and 3) — a clear gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Ipswich Town 25%, draw 25%, Liverpool 50%. Last five in the league: Ipswich Town D-L-L-L-W (0.80 pts/game), Liverpool L-D-L-D-D (0.60).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 50% for Liverpool, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
50%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.