Top probability 57% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 24% (ranked 2 of 3).
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Liverpool
Nottingham ForestShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | LDLDD | 8 | 11 | -3 | 0.60 |
| Nottingham Forest | WDLDL | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1.00 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 27 | 12 |
| On target (avg) | 7 | 2 |
| Possession | 61% | 55% |
| Pass accuracy | 84% | 78% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 2.98 | 0.66 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-02-22 | Nottingham Forest | 0–1 | Liverpool | EPL |
| 2025-11-22 | Liverpool | 0–3 | Nottingham Forest | EPL |
| 2025-01-14 | Nottingham Forest | 1–1 | Liverpool | EPL |
| 2024-09-14 | Liverpool | 0–1 | Nottingham Forest | EPL |
| 2024-03-02 | Nottingham Forest | 0–1 | Liverpool | EPL |
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PROThe model favours Liverpool with a 57% win probability, driven by their 3rd league ranking and a power rating of 1652, significantly higher than Nottingham Forest's 12th rank and 1544 rating.
57%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.