Top probability 62% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 62% (ranked 1 of 3).
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Manchester City
AFC BournemouthShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | WWDLW | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.00 |
| AFC Bournemouth | WWDDL | 7 | 4 | +3 | 1.60 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 13 | 5 |
| On target (avg) | 6 | 4 |
| Possession | 66% | 34% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 79% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 2.36 | 0.63 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-08-23 | Manchester City | 2–1 | AFC Bournemouth | EPL |
| 2026-05-19 | AFC Bournemouth | 1–1 | Manchester City | EPL |
| 2025-11-02 | Manchester City | 3–1 | AFC Bournemouth | EPL |
| 2025-05-20 | Manchester City | 3–1 | AFC Bournemouth | EPL |
| 2024-11-02 | AFC Bournemouth | 2–1 | Manchester City | EPL |
Manchester City
AFC Bournemouth
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PROModel lean: Manchester City (62%) — higher confidence, not one-sided.
62%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.