Top probability 73% clears the 65% bar — the model has a clear lean.
Model lean: Manchester City (73%). The gap is clear and form agrees — no counter-signal.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Manchester City
Coventry CityShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | WWDLW | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.00 |
| Coventry City | L | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0.00 |
Promoted sides have under five Premier League matches — rank comparisons are not yet meaningful. Shows automatically after a few matchweeks.
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 13 | 4 |
| On target (avg) | 6 | 1 |
| Possession | 66% | 36% |
| Pass accuracy | 89% | 79% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 2.36 | 0.2 |
No recent Premier League meetings.
Manchester City
Coventry City
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Model lean: Manchester City (73%). The gap is clear and form agrees — no counter-signal.
Strength ratings 1776 v 1485 (ranked 2 and 19) — a huge gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Manchester City 73%, draw 19%, Coventry City 8%. Last five in the league: Manchester City W-W-D-L-W (2.00 pts/game), Coventry City L (0.00).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PROModel lean: Manchester City (73%). The gap is clear and form agrees — no counter-signal.
73%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.