Top probability 39% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 39% for Newcastle United, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Newcastle United
AFC BournemouthShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | WDWLD | 9 | 7 | +2 | 1.60 |
| AFC Bournemouth | WWDDL | 7 | 4 | +3 | 1.60 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 13 | 5 |
| On target (avg) | 4 | 4 |
| Possession | 39% | 34% |
| Pass accuracy | 76% | 79% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.57 | 0.63 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-04-18 | Newcastle United | 1–2 | AFC Bournemouth | EPL |
| 2025-09-21 | AFC Bournemouth | 0–0 | Newcastle United | EPL |
| 2025-01-18 | Newcastle United | 1–4 | AFC Bournemouth | EPL |
| 2024-08-25 | AFC Bournemouth | 1–1 | Newcastle United | EPL |
| 2024-02-17 | Newcastle United | 2–2 | AFC Bournemouth | EPL |
Newcastle United
AFC Bournemouth
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
No model lean: line-ball at 39% for Newcastle United, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1575 v 1606 (ranked 10 and 5) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Newcastle United 39%, draw 26%, AFC Bournemouth 35%. Last five in the league: Newcastle United W-D-W-L-D (1.60 pts/game), AFC Bournemouth W-W-D-D-L (1.60).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 39% for Newcastle United, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
39%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.