Top probability 43% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 26% (ranked 3 of 3).
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Newcastle United
LiverpoolShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | WDWLD | 9 | 7 | +2 | 1.60 |
| Liverpool | LDLDD | 8 | 11 | -3 | 0.60 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 13 | 27 |
| On target (avg) | 4 | 7 |
| Possession | 39% | 61% |
| Pass accuracy | 76% | 84% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.57 | 2.98 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-08-23 | Newcastle United | 2–2 | Liverpool | EPL |
| 2026-01-31 | Liverpool | 4–1 | Newcastle United | EPL |
| 2025-08-25 | Newcastle United | 2–3 | Liverpool | EPL |
| 2025-02-26 | Liverpool | 2–0 | Newcastle United | EPL |
| 2024-12-04 | Newcastle United | 3–3 | Liverpool | EPL |
Newcastle United
Liverpool
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 43% for Liverpool, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
43%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.