Top probability 46% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 28% (ranked 2 of 3).
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Nottingham Forest
Leeds UnitedShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | WDLDL | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1.00 |
| Leeds United | WDWLW | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.00 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 12 | 11 |
| On target (avg) | 2 | 3 |
| Possession | 55% | 45% |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 71% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 39 matches.
| 2026-08-22 | Nottingham Forest | 0–1 | Leeds United | EPL |
| 2026-02-06 | Leeds United | 3–1 | Nottingham Forest | EPL |
| 2025-11-09 | Nottingham Forest | 3–1 | Leeds United | EPL |
Nottingham Forest
Leeds United
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 46% for Nottingham Forest, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
46%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.