Top probability 55% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Model lean: Nottingham Forest (55%) — higher confidence, not one-sided; Tottenham Hotspur's form is the main variable.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham HotspurShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | WDLDL | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1.00 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | WDLWL | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1.40 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 12 | 9 |
| On target (avg) | 2 | 4 |
| Possession | 55% | 59% |
| Pass accuracy | 78% | 88% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-03-22 | Tottenham Hotspur | 0–3 | Nottingham Forest | EPL |
| 2025-12-14 | Nottingham Forest | 3–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | EPL |
| 2025-04-21 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–2 | Nottingham Forest | EPL |
| 2024-12-26 | Nottingham Forest | 1–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | EPL |
| 2024-04-07 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3–1 | Nottingham Forest | EPL |
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham Hotspur
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Model lean: Nottingham Forest (55%) — higher confidence, not one-sided; Tottenham Hotspur's form is the main variable.
Strength ratings 1547 v 1449 (ranked 12 and 20) — a modest gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Nottingham Forest 55%, draw 24%, Tottenham Hotspur 21%. Last five in the league: Nottingham Forest W-D-L-D-L (1.00 pts/game), Tottenham Hotspur W-D-L-W-L (1.40).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PROModel lean: Nottingham Forest (55%) — higher confidence, not one-sided; Tottenham Hotspur's form is the main variable.
55%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.