Top probability 45% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 45% (ranked 1 of 3).
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle UnitedShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | WDLWL | 5 | 7 | -2 | 1.40 |
| Newcastle United | WDWLD | 9 | 7 | +2 | 1.60 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 9 | 13 |
| On target (avg) | 4 | 4 |
| Possession | 59% | 39% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 76% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 0.57 | 1.57 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-02-10 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–2 | Newcastle United | EPL |
| 2025-12-02 | Newcastle United | 2–2 | Tottenham Hotspur | EPL |
| 2025-01-04 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–2 | Newcastle United | EPL |
| 2024-09-01 | Newcastle United | 2–1 | Tottenham Hotspur | EPL |
| 2024-04-13 | Newcastle United | 4–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | EPL |
Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle United
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 45% for Newcastle United, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
45%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.