HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 5JEF United Ichihara-Chiba vs Fagiano Okayama
Early season
JEF United Ichihara-ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba
Matchweek 5VSWed 2 September at · time TBCFukuda Denshi Arena
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
39%
Draw
27%
Away
34%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locks 24h before kickoff; never edited afterwards.
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
39%JEF United Ichihara-Chiba win
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba win 39%Draw 27%Fagiano Okayama win 34%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 39%
65% bar

Top probability 39% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

No model lean: line-ball at 39% for JEF United Ichihara-Chiba, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba
1.51
League home avg 1.38
Fagiano Okayama
1.40
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.12 JEF United Ichihara-Chiba
Shots (avg)
On target (avg)

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
JEF United Ichihara-ChibaJEF United Ichihara-ChibaLLL09-90.00
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano OkayamaLWLWD4401.40
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only. Promoted sides have fewer J1 League matches on record.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

JEF United Ichihara-ChibaFagiano Okayama3-match sample
Shots (avg)7.718.7
On target (avg)23.7
Possession45%50%
Pass accuracy79%76%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1458 / 1465
Expected goals (this match)1.51 / 1.40
JEF United Ichihara-ChibaFagiano Okayama
Head to head Last 0FREE

No recent J1 League meetings.

Availability FREE
JEF United Ichihara-ChibaJEF United Ichihara-Chiba
No flagged absences
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Match analysis ①–⑦

No model lean: line-ball at 39% for JEF United Ichihara-Chiba, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Strength ratings 1458 v 1465 (ranked 18 and 17) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it JEF United Ichihara-Chiba 39%, draw 27%, Fagiano Okayama 34%. Last five in the league: JEF United Ichihara-Chiba L-L-L (0.00 pts/game), Fagiano Okayama L-W-L-W-D (1.40).

Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Key players FREE
ER
ERISON FW
0G · 0A · 270'
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba
TS
TSUKUI Takumi MF
0G · 0A · 247'
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba
MA
MATHEUS INDIO MF
0G · 0A · 214'
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba
MI
MIYAMOTO Eiji MF
0G · 1A · 246'
Fagiano Okayama
LU
LUCAO FW
1G · 0A · 193'
Fagiano Okayama
BR
BROWNE Noah Kenshin MF
1G · 0A · 87'
Fagiano Okayama
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 39% for JEF United Ichihara-Chiba, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
JEF United Ichihara-Chiba39%
Even
Confidence
No lean
39%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.70
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.