HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 6Avispa Fukuoka vs Mito Hollyhock
Early season
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
Matchweek 6VSSat 5 September at 6:00 amBest Denki Stadium
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
39%
Draw
27%
Away
34%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locks 24h before kickoff; never edited afterwards.
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
39%Avispa Fukuoka win
Avispa Fukuoka win 39%Draw 27%Mito Hollyhock win 34%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 39%
65% bar

Top probability 39% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

No model lean: line-ball at 39% for Avispa Fukuoka, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
Avispa Fukuoka
1.51
League home avg 1.38
Mito Hollyhock
1.40
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.11 Avispa Fukuoka
Shots (avg)
On target (avg)

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
Avispa FukuokaAvispa FukuokaWLLWL65+11.20
Mito HollyhockMito HollyhockLDW54+11.33
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only. Promoted sides have fewer J1 League matches on record.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

Avispa FukuokaMito Hollyhock3-match sample
Shots (avg)14.715.7
On target (avg)54.3
Possession41%40%
Pass accuracy71%82%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1495 / 1504
Expected goals (this match)1.51 / 1.40
Avispa FukuokaMito Hollyhock
Head to head Last 0FREE

No recent J1 League meetings.

Availability FREE
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
No flagged absences
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Match analysis ①–⑦

No model lean: line-ball at 39% for Avispa Fukuoka, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Strength ratings 1495 v 1504 (ranked 15 and 14) — very close. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Avispa Fukuoka 39%, draw 27%, Mito Hollyhock 34%. Last five in the league: Avispa Fukuoka W-L-L-W-L (1.20 pts/game), Mito Hollyhock L-D-W (1.33).

Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.

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Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

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Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

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Key players FREE
WE
WERIK POPO FW
1G · 0A · 250'
Avispa Fukuoka
FU
FUJIMOTO Kazuki FW
1G · 0A · 207'
Avispa Fukuoka
MO
MOROOKA Shu FW
1G · 0A · 188'
Avispa Fukuoka
FU
FUNABASHI Yu MF
0G · 2A · 239'
Mito Hollyhock
SE
SEMBA Taishi MF
0G · 1A · 270'
Mito Hollyhock
UC
UCHINO Kotaro FW
1G · 0A · 257'
Mito Hollyhock
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 39% for Avispa Fukuoka, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
Avispa Fukuoka39%
Even
Confidence
No lean
39%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.50
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.