HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 4Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Match of the WeekToo close to call
Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
Matchweek 400Sat 29 August at 5:00 amSuita City Football Stadium
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
32%
Draw
27%
Away
41%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locked before kickoff — never edited afterwards.
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
41%Sanfrecce Hiroshima win
Gamba Osaka win 32%Draw 27%Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 41%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 41%
65% bar

Top probability 41% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 27% (ranked 3 of 3).

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
Gamba Osaka
1.36
League home avg 1.38
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.55
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.20 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shots (avg)
On target (avg)

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
Gamba OsakaGamba OsakaLWWDL109+11.40
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce HiroshimaWWWWD124+82.60
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

Gamba OsakaSanfrecce Hiroshima3-match sample
Shots (avg)13.721.3
On target (avg)5.38
Possession59%54%
Pass accuracy85%82%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1558 / 1647
Expected goals (this match)1.36 / 1.55
Goals per game (last season)1.39 / 1.21
Gamba OsakaSanfrecce Hiroshima
Head to head Last 5FREE
1
Gamba Osaka wins
1
Draws
3
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins
2025-08-16Sanfrecce Hiroshima10Gamba OsakaJ1
2025-05-11Gamba Osaka01Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1
2024-12-08Gamba Osaka31Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1
2024-03-30Sanfrecce Hiroshima11Gamba OsakaJ1
2023-11-25Sanfrecce Hiroshima30Gamba OsakaJ1
Availability FREE
Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
No flagged absences
Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Key players FREE
YA
YAMASHITA Ryoya FW
0G · 2A · 269'
Gamba Osaka
IS
ISSAM JEBALI FW
1G · 1A · 90'
Gamba Osaka
AB
ABE Shuto MF
0G · 1A · 253'
Gamba Osaka
SU
SUZUKI Akito FW
3G · 0A · 270'
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
KA
KAWABE Hayao MF
0G · 1A · 268'
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HI
HIGASHI Shunki MF
0G · 1A · 239'
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 41% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
Sanfrecce Hiroshima41%
Even
Confidence
No lean
41%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.80
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.