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HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 4Kyoto Sanga vs Avispa Fukuoka
Too close to call
Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga
Matchweek 42–1Sat 29 August at 6:00 amSanga Stadium by Kyocera
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
48%
Draw
26%
Away
26%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locked before kickoff — never edited afterwards.
OverviewxGHT / FTData
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
48%Kyoto Sanga win
Kyoto Sanga win 48%Draw 26%Avispa Fukuoka win 26%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 48%
65% bar

Top probability 48% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 48% (ranked 1 of 3).

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
Kyoto Sanga
1.71
League home avg 1.38
Avispa Fukuoka
1.20
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.50 Kyoto Sanga
Shots (avg)
—
On target (avg)
—

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
Kyoto SangaKyoto SangaWWLDL7701.40
Avispa FukuokaAvispa FukuokaWLLWL65+11.20
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

Kyoto SangaAvispa Fukuoka3-match sample
Shots (avg)12.714.7
On target (avg)4.35
Possession54%41%
Pass accuracy79%71%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1609 / 1495
Expected goals (this match)1.71 / 1.20
Goals per game (last season)1.63 / 0.89
◀ Kyoto SangaAvispa Fukuoka ▶
Head to head Last 5FREE
2
Kyoto Sanga wins
1
Draws
2
Avispa Fukuoka wins
2025-07-21Avispa Fukuoka2–2Kyoto SangaJ1
2025-03-09Kyoto Sanga0–1Avispa FukuokaJ1
2024-07-07Avispa Fukuoka1–2Kyoto SangaJ1
2024-05-11Kyoto Sanga2–3Avispa FukuokaJ1
2023-08-26Kyoto Sanga2–0Avispa FukuokaJ1
Availability FREE
Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga
No flagged absences
Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

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Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Key players FREE
RA
RAFAEL ELIAS FW
2G · 0A · 270'
Kyoto Sanga
NA
NAKANO Ryuma MF
1G · 0A · 90'
Kyoto Sanga
OK
OKUGAWA Masaya MF
0G · 1A · 45'
Kyoto Sanga
WE
WERIK POPO FW
1G · 0A · 250'
Avispa Fukuoka
FU
FUJIMOTO Kazuki FW
1G · 0A · 207'
Avispa Fukuoka
MO
MOROOKA Shu FW
1G · 0A · 188'
Avispa Fukuoka
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 48% for Kyoto Sanga, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
Kyoto Sanga48%
Even
Confidence
No lean
48%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.40
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.