HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 4Nagoya Grampus vs Fagiano Okayama
Too close to call
Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
Matchweek 421Sat 29 August at 6:00 amToyota Stadium (Japan)
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
43%
Draw
27%
Away
31%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locked before kickoff — never edited afterwards.
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
43%Nagoya Grampus win
Nagoya Grampus win 43%Draw 27%Fagiano Okayama win 31%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 43%
65% bar

Top probability 43% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 43% (ranked 1 of 3).

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
Nagoya Grampus
1.59
League home avg 1.38
Fagiano Okayama
1.32
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.27 Nagoya Grampus
Shots (avg)
On target (avg)

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
Nagoya GrampusNagoya GrampusLWLLW67-11.20
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano OkayamaLWLWD4401.40
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

Nagoya GrampusFagiano Okayama3-match sample
Shots (avg)17.318.7
On target (avg)6.33.7
Possession59%50%
Pass accuracy84%76%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1518 / 1465
Expected goals (this match)1.59 / 1.32
Goals per game (last season)1.16 / 0.89
Nagoya GrampusFagiano Okayama
Head to head Last 2FREE
1
Nagoya Grampus wins
1
Draws
0
Fagiano Okayama wins
2025-09-13Fagiano Okayama01Nagoya GrampusJ1
2025-05-06Nagoya Grampus00Fagiano OkayamaJ1
Availability FREE
Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus
No flagged absences
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Key players FREE
AS
ASANO Yuya MF
1G · 1A · 48'
Nagoya Grampus
KI
KIMURA Yudai FW
1G · 0A · 267'
Nagoya Grampus
IZ
IZUMI Ryuji MF
0G · 1A · 202'
Nagoya Grampus
MI
MIYAMOTO Eiji MF
0G · 1A · 246'
Fagiano Okayama
LU
LUCAO FW
1G · 0A · 193'
Fagiano Okayama
BR
BROWNE Noah Kenshin MF
1G · 0A · 87'
Fagiano Okayama
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Nagoya Grampus, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
Nagoya Grampus43%
Even
Confidence
No lean
43%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.50
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.