HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 5V-Varen Nagasaki vs Gamba Osaka
Early season
V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen Nagasaki
Matchweek 5VSWed 2 September at · time TBCPEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank
Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
29%
Draw
27%
Away
45%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locks 24h before kickoff; never edited afterwards.
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
45%Gamba Osaka win
V-Varen Nagasaki win 29%Draw 27%Gamba Osaka win 45%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 45%
65% bar

Top probability 45% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

No model lean: line-ball at 45% for Gamba Osaka, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
V-Varen Nagasaki
1.27
League home avg 1.38
Gamba Osaka
1.64
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.37 Gamba Osaka
Shots (avg)
On target (avg)

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen NagasakiWLL46-21.00
Gamba OsakaGamba OsakaLWWDL109+11.40
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only. Promoted sides have fewer J1 League matches on record.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

V-Varen NagasakiGamba Osaka3-match sample
Shots (avg)813.7
On target (avg)2.75.3
Possession43%59%
Pass accuracy77%85%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1416 / 1558
Expected goals (this match)1.27 / 1.64
V-Varen NagasakiGamba Osaka
Head to head Last 0FREE

No recent J1 League meetings.

Availability FREE
V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen Nagasaki
No flagged absences
Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Match analysis ①–⑦

No model lean: line-ball at 45% for Gamba Osaka, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Strength ratings 1416 v 1558 (ranked 20 and 11) — a clear gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it V-Varen Nagasaki 29%, draw 27%, Gamba Osaka 45%. Last five in the league: V-Varen Nagasaki W-L-L (1.00 pts/game), Gamba Osaka L-W-W-D-L (1.40).

Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.

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Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

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Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

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Key players FREE
IW
IWASAKI Yuto MF
1G · 1A · 257'
V-Varen Nagasaki
TH
THIAGO SANTANA FW
2G · 0A · 203'
V-Varen Nagasaki
YA
YAMAGUCHI Hotaru MF
0G · 1A · 244'
V-Varen Nagasaki
YA
YAMASHITA Ryoya FW
0G · 2A · 269'
Gamba Osaka
IS
ISSAM JEBALI FW
1G · 1A · 90'
Gamba Osaka
AB
ABE Shuto MF
0G · 1A · 253'
Gamba Osaka
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 45% for Gamba Osaka, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
Gamba Osaka45%
Even
Confidence
No lean
45%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
3.40
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.