SUKINAFOOTBALLSun 11 Oct · 14:00
PRE-MATCH MODEL FORECAST · La Liga
Evenly matched
Win probability
28%Home29%Draw43%Away
Score predictionPRO
Likely scorersPRO
Model confidenceMid44/100
Statistical model · reference only · not betting advicesukinafootball.com
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Model forecast
43%Atlético Madrid win
Alavés win 28%Draw 29%Atlético Madrid win 43%
Evenly matched
Match analysis
No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Atlético Madrid, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1491 v 1643 (ranked 13 and 3) — a clear gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Alavés 28%, draw 29%, Atlético Madrid 43%. Last five in the league: Alavés W-W-L-W-D (2.00 pts/game), Atlético Madrid W-W-L-W-D (2.00).
Expected goals (home / away split) league average split by strength gap
Alavés
1.17
League home avg 1.50
Atlético Madrid
1.48
League away avg 1.15
xG diff
+0.32 Atlético Madrid
Shots (avg)
12.7 · 13.4
On target (avg)
4.3 · 4.9
Recent form Last 5 La Liga
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WWLWD | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.00 | |
| WWLWD | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2.00 |
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongest
Radar not shown yet
La Liga lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.
| Shots (avg) | 16.5 | 17 |
| On target (avg) | 5.5 | 5 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.97 | 0.86 |
Model data
Strength rating1491 / 1643
Expected goals (home / away split)1.17 / 1.48
Goals per game (last season)1.16 / 1.63
◀ AlavésAtlético Madrid ▶
Head to head Last 5
1
Alavés wins
2
Draws
2
Atlético Madrid wins
| 2026-01-18 | Atlético Madrid | 1–0 | Alavés | LALIGA |
| 2025-08-30 | Alavés | 1–1 | Atlético Madrid | LALIGA |
| 2025-05-03 | Alavés | 0–0 | Atlético Madrid | LALIGA |
| 2024-11-23 | Atlético Madrid | 2–1 | Alavés | LALIGA |
| 2024-04-21 | Alavés | 2–0 | Atlético Madrid | LALIGA |
Availability
TO
Out
234' · 0G
AL
Out
0' · 0G
Model confidence
Mid44/100
Lean clarity
Goals agreement
Decisive result
68 = high
Most likely score PRO
PRO CONTENT
Expected goals (home / away split) PRO
PRO CONTENT
Corners PRO
PRO CONTENT
Key players
MA
2G · 2A · 97'
NA
1G · 0A · 270'
NG
0G · 1A · 216'
AL
3G · 1A · 163'
GI
1G · 1A · 213'
DV
0G · 1A · 270'
By goals + assists + xG + xA2026-08-31
Goals & scoreline projection
Top score
?–?
Expected total goals
3.10
20-match blend (reference)
All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.