Top probability 43% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Atlético Madrid, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured La Liga share (1160 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1160 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Athletic Club | LDLLL | 4 | 12 | -8 | 0.20 |
 Atlético Madrid | WWLWD | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2.00 |
La Liga lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.
2-match sample| Shots (avg) | 11.5 | 17 |
| On target (avg) | 4 | 5 |
| Shot xG (avg) | 0.75 | 0.86 |
| 2026-04-25 | Atlético Madrid | 3–2 | Athletic Club | LALIGA |
| 2025-12-06 | Athletic Club | 1–0 | Atlético Madrid | LALIGA |
| 2025-03-01 | Atlético Madrid | 1–0 | Athletic Club | LALIGA |
| 2024-08-31 | Athletic Club | 0–1 | Atlético Madrid | LALIGA |
| 2024-04-27 | Atlético Madrid | 3–1 | Athletic Club | LALIGA |
Athletic ClubAtlético MadridAbsence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.
No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Atlético Madrid, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1501 v 1656 (ranked 12 and 3) — a clear gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Athletic Club 28%, draw 29%, Atlético Madrid 43%. Last five in the league: Athletic Club L-D-L-L-L (0.20 pts/game), Atlético Madrid W-W-L-W-D (2.00).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 43% for Atlético Madrid, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
43%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.