SUKINAFOOTBALLSat 10 Oct · 10:00
PRE-MATCH MODEL FORECAST · Premier League
Higher confidence · Arsenal
Win probability
70%Home20%Draw10%Away
Score predictionPRO
Likely scorersPRO
Model confidenceHigh84/100
Statistical model · reference only · not betting advicesukinafootball.com
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Model forecast
70%Arsenal win
Arsenal win 70%Draw 20%Leeds United win 10%
Higher confidence: Arsenal
Match analysis
Model lean: Arsenal (70%). The gap is clear and form agrees — no counter-signal.
Strength ratings 1806 v 1536 (ranked 1 and 13) — a huge gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Arsenal 70%, draw 20%, Leeds United 10%. Last five in the league: Arsenal W-W-W-W-W (3.00 pts/game), Leeds United W-D-W-L-W (2.00).
Expected goals (home / away split) league average split by strength gap
Arsenal
2.43
League home avg 1.62
Leeds United
0.63
League away avg 1.37
xG diff
+1.79 Arsenal
Shots (avg)
14.6 · 12.4
On target (avg)
5.2 · 4
Team style from real match data
High shot volume
Possession (season)65%
Pass acc. (season)92%
Shots/game14.6
Corners/game5.2
Attack-minded
Possession (season)45%
Pass acc. (season)71%
Shots/game12.4
Corners/game4.5
Recent form Last 5 Premier League
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WWWWW | 10 | 1 | +9 | 3.00 | |
| WDWLW | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.00 |
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongest
ArsenalLeeds United
| Shots (avg) | 20 | 11 |
| On target (avg) | 6 | 3 |
| Possession | 65% | 45% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 71% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.88 | 0.47 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 39 matches.
Model data
Strength rating1806 / 1536
Expected goals (home / away split)2.43 / 0.63
Goals per game (last season)1.87 / 1.29
◀ ArsenalLeeds United ▶
Head to head Last 2
2
Arsenal wins
0
Draws
0
Leeds United wins
| 2026-01-31 | Leeds United | 0–4 | Arsenal | EPL |
| 2025-08-23 | Arsenal | 5–0 | Leeds United | EPL |
Availability
Out
0' · 0G
Out
0' · 0G
Doubtful
0' · 0G
Out
0' · 0G
Out
0' · 0G
Out
0' · 0G
Model confidence
High84/100
Lean clarity
Goals agreement
Decisive result
68 = high
Most likely score PRO
PRO CONTENT
Expected goals (home / away split) PRO
PRO CONTENT
Corners PRO
PRO CONTENT
Key players
1G · 0A · xG 0.64 · 67'
0G · 1A · xG 0.19 · 75'
1G · 0A · xG 0.10 · 90'
0G · 0A · 24'
By goals + assists + xG + xA2026-08-27
Goals & scoreline projection
Top score
?–?
Expected total goals
2.50
20-match blend (reference)
All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.