Top probability 37% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 37% (ranked 1 of 3).
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston VillaShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | LWLLW | 8 | 7 | +1 | 1.20 |
| Aston Villa | LDWWL | 9 | 11 | -2 | 1.40 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 21 | 6 |
| On target (avg) | 6 | 0 |
| Possession | 73% | 27% |
| Pass accuracy | 93% | 76% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 3.77 | 0.28 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-08-23 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 4–0 | Aston Villa | EPL |
| 2026-02-11 | Aston Villa | 1–0 | Brighton & Hove Albion | EPL |
| 2025-12-03 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3–4 | Aston Villa | EPL |
| 2025-04-02 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0–3 | Aston Villa | EPL |
| 2024-12-30 | Aston Villa | 2–2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | EPL |
Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 37% for Brighton & Hove Albion, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
37%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.