Top probability 43% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Manchester United, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Everton
Manchester UnitedShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | DDLLW | 8 | 9 | -1 | 1.00 |
| Manchester United | WDWWL | 9 | 6 | +3 | 2.00 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 16 | 21 |
| On target (avg) | 5 | 5 |
| Possession | 42% | 72% |
| Pass accuracy | 82% | 88% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.12 | 1.83 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-02-23 | Everton | 0–1 | Manchester United | EPL |
| 2025-11-24 | Manchester United | 0–1 | Everton | EPL |
| 2025-02-22 | Everton | 2–2 | Manchester United | EPL |
| 2024-12-01 | Manchester United | 4–0 | Everton | EPL |
| 2024-03-09 | Manchester United | 2–0 | Everton | EPL |
Everton
Manchester United
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
No model lean: line-ball at 43% for Manchester United, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1547 v 1643 (ranked 11 and 4) — a modest gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Everton 31%, draw 26%, Manchester United 43%. Last five in the league: Everton D-D-L-L-W (1.00 pts/game), Manchester United W-D-W-W-L (2.00).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 43% for Manchester United, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
43%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.