Top probability 39% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
No model lean: line-ball at 39% for Aston Villa, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Hull City
Aston VillaShots and corners are real averages over the last 1 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | W | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3.00 |
| Aston Villa | LDWWL | 9 | 11 | -2 | 1.40 |
Promoted sides have under five Premier League matches — rank comparisons are not yet meaningful. Shows automatically after a few matchweeks.
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 8 | 6 |
| On target (avg) | 4 | 0 |
| Possession | 29% | 27% |
| Pass accuracy | 70% | 76% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.01 | 0.28 |
No recent Premier League meetings.
Hull City
Aston Villa
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
No model lean: line-ball at 39% for Aston Villa, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
Strength ratings 1530 v 1595 (ranked 13 and 6) — a modest gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Hull City 34%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 39%. Last five in the league: Hull City W (3.00 pts/game), Aston Villa L-D-W-W-L (1.40).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PRONo model lean: line-ball at 39% for Aston Villa, with a live draw — a match decided by details.
39%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.