HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 4Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia
Too close to call
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
Matchweek 411Sat 29 August at 5:00 amKasamatsu Stadium
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
31%
Draw
27%
Away
42%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locked before kickoff — never edited afterwards.
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
42%Machida Zelvia win
Mito Hollyhock win 31%Draw 27%Machida Zelvia win 42%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 42%
65% bar

Top probability 42% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 27% (ranked 3 of 3).

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
Mito Hollyhock
1.33
League home avg 1.38
Machida Zelvia
1.58
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.25 Machida Zelvia
Shots (avg)
On target (avg)

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
Mito HollyhockMito HollyhockLDW54+11.33
Machida ZelviaMachida ZelviaWLWWW154+112.40
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only. Promoted sides have fewer J1 League matches on record.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

Mito HollyhockMachida Zelvia3-match sample
Shots (avg)15.716
On target (avg)4.36.7
Possession40%47%
Pass accuracy82%82%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1504 / 1608
Expected goals (this match)1.33 / 1.58
Mito HollyhockMachida Zelvia
Head to head Last 0FREE

No recent J1 League meetings.

Availability FREE
Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock
No flagged absences
Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

Unlock with PRO
Key players FREE
FU
FUNABASHI Yu MF
0G · 2A · 239'
Mito Hollyhock
SE
SEMBA Taishi MF
0G · 1A · 270'
Mito Hollyhock
UC
UCHINO Kotaro FW
1G · 0A · 257'
Mito Hollyhock
SO
SOMA Yuki FW
1G · 2A · 261'
Machida Zelvia
MI
MITCHELL DUKE FW
1G · 2A · 173'
Machida Zelvia
TE
TETE YENGI FW
2G · 0A · 250'
Machida Zelvia
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 42% for Machida Zelvia, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
Machida Zelvia42%
Even
Confidence
No lean
42%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.80
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.