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HomeJ1 LeagueMatchweek 4V-Varen Nagasaki vs FC Tokyo
Too close to call
V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen Nagasaki
Matchweek 40–3Sat 29 August at 5:30 amPEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank
FC TokyoFC Tokyo
Sukina model — 1X2
Home
30%
Draw
27%
Away
44%
Evenly matched
Confidence: No lean
Locked before kickoff — never edited afterwards.
OverviewxGHT / FTData
Model forecast OverviewFREE
Win probability
44%FC Tokyo win
V-Varen Nagasaki win 30%Draw 27%FC Tokyo win 44%
Model confidence
No leanTop probability 44%
65% bar

Top probability 44% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.

Pre-match, the model gave this outcome 44% (ranked 1 of 3).

Expected Goals (xG) model expected goalsFREE
V-Varen Nagasaki
1.30
League home avg 1.38
FC Tokyo
1.61
League away avg 1.18
xG diff
+0.31 FC Tokyo
Shots (avg)
—
On target (avg)
—

Expected goals are model output (not shot xG). League averages come from all 1096 of those matches.

Recent form Last 5 J1 LeagueFREE
TeamFormGFGAGDPPG
V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen NagasakiWLL46-21.00
FC TokyoFC TokyoDDLDW68-21.20
Chronological left→right; J1 League matches only. Promoted sides have fewer J1 League matches on record.
Team comparison 40–99 scale · 99 strongestFREE
Radar not shown yet

J1 League lacks the multi-season public data (shots, possession) the radar needs, so it is not shown; nothing else on this page is affected.

V-Varen NagasakiFC Tokyo3-match sample
Shots (avg)816
On target (avg)2.74.3
Possession43%50%
Pass accuracy77%80%
Model data FREE
Strength rating1416 / 1565
Expected goals (this match)1.30 / 1.61
◀ V-Varen NagasakiFC Tokyo ▶
Head to head Last 0FREE

No recent J1 League meetings.

Availability FREE
V-Varen NagasakiV-Varen Nagasaki
No flagged absences
FC TokyoFC Tokyo
No flagged absences

Absence flags come from a pre-match public availability snapshot and update as clubs announce; reference only — the locked forecast never changes.

Most likely score PRO

Top-3 scorelines are Pass content.

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Expected goals (model) PRO

The per-team split is Pass content.

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Key players FREE
IW
IWASAKI Yuto MF
1G · 1A · 257'
V-Varen Nagasaki
TH
THIAGO SANTANA FW
2G · 0A · 203'
V-Varen Nagasaki
YA
YAMAGUCHI Hotaru MF
0G · 1A · 244'
V-Varen Nagasaki
SA
SATO Kein FW
0G · 2A · 254'
FC Tokyo
NA
NAGAKURA Motoki FW
2G · 0A · 222'
FC Tokyo
KO
KO Takahiro MF
1G · 0A · 241'
FC Tokyo
By goals + assists
Model summary

No model lean: line-ball at 44% for FC Tokyo, with a live draw — a match decided by details.

Lean
FC Tokyo44%
Even
Confidence
No lean
44%
Top score
?–?
Expected goals
2.90
20-match blend (reference)

All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.