Top probability 64% is below the 65% bar — no lean. This is the same probability read against the threshold, not a separate score.
Model lean: Arsenal (64%) — higher confidence, not one-sided.
Expected goals are model output (not shot xG); halves split by the measured Premier League share (1150 matches, 44% in the first half). League averages come from all 1150 of those matches; shot numbers are each side’s real 30-match averages.
Arsenal
ChelseaShots and corners are real averages over the last 30 Premier League matches; possession and pass accuracy come from this season's public stats only (1-match sample). Tags derive from that data. Formation and pressing have no reliable free source and are not shown.
| Team | Form | GF | GA | GD | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | WWWWW | 10 | 1 | +9 | 3.00 |
| Chelsea | LDWLW | 8 | 9 | -1 | 1.40 |
1-match sample| Shots (avg) | 20 | 18 |
| On target (avg) | 6 | 6 |
| Possession | 65% | 39% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 81% |
| Shot xG (avg) | 1.88 | 1.7 |
40–99 scale from each club's relative position on real data over the last three Premier League seasons — not subjective ratings. Samples: 77 vs 77 matches.
| 2026-03-01 | Arsenal | 2–1 | Chelsea | EPL |
| 2025-11-30 | Chelsea | 1–1 | Arsenal | EPL |
| 2025-03-16 | Arsenal | 1–0 | Chelsea | EPL |
| 2024-11-10 | Chelsea | 1–1 | Arsenal | EPL |
| 2024-04-23 | Arsenal | 5–0 | Chelsea | EPL |
Arsenal
Chelsea
The win-probability figure is an "if absent" scenario: the player's real output (xG+xA for attackers, xGA on pitch for defenders) is compared with the club's like-for-like cover, then probabilities are recomputed. It is an add-on scenario and never alters the locked forecast.
Model lean: Arsenal (64%) — higher confidence, not one-sided.
Strength ratings 1792 v 1582 (ranked 1 and 8) — a clear gap. With a fixed home-advantage term the model makes it Arsenal 64%, draw 22%, Chelsea 14%. Last five in the league: Arsenal W-W-W-W-W (3.00 pts/game), Chelsea L-D-W-L-W (1.40).
Sections ③–⑦ are Pass content.
Unlock with PROTop-3 scorelines are Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe per-team split is Pass content.
Unlock with PROThe 3×3 HT/FT grid is PRO content.
Unlock with PROCorner analysis is PRO content.
Unlock with PRO
The five-axis matchup is PRO content.
Unlock with PROModel lean: Arsenal (64%) — higher confidence, not one-sided.
64%All data on this page comes from the SUKINA model and public third-party sources — for reference only; not betting advice or a guarantee of results.